Analysis of the Impact of Import Fluctuations on Economic Stability Indicators in Iraq: An Econometric Study for the Period (2004-2023) According To the ARDL Cointegration Methodology
Sr No:
Page No:
35-44
Language:
English
Authors:
Munaf Marza Neama* , Alyaa kadhim Ayal
Received:
2025-05-02
Accepted:
2025-05-17
Published Date:
2025-05-20
Abstract:
The research is an attempt to analyze the impact of import fluctuations on economic
stability indicators using a quantitative methodology based on econometric models to determine
the impact of import fluctuations on economic stability indicators, with a focus on the research
period. Data related to imports, inflation, and gross domestic product were used. The results
showed a strong direct relationship between import fluctuations and the inflation rate. It also
showed that sudden fluctuations in imports negatively affect the balance of payments and
weaken the stability of the exchange rate. In contrast, economic diversification and local
investment policies play an important role in mitigating these negative effects. The research
recommends the necessity of adopting effective policies on the import of goods and services,
which contribute to enhancing local production to reduce dependence on foreign countries, and
contribute positively to achieving the country's economic stability in the long term.
Keywords:
Imports, economic stability, economic fluctuations, ARDL